Contemporary issues in tourism, hospitality and events

Optimistic - until the end of March 2021. May allow to achieve 75% of last year's turnover.Realistic - by the end of June 2021, and then it will be possible to achieve 50% of the turnover compared to last year.Pessimistic - until the end of April 2022 and 35% of 2019 turnover.4. Complete normalizationThe phase in which the vaccine became available and movement restrictions were completely abolished.Optimistic scenario: 90% of the turnover in 2019 can be reached as early as the end of September 2021.Realistic - June 2022 and 80% of turnover.Pessimistic - end of October 2023. And 70% of the turnover.The analytical report will be updated as new statistical data or real events in the world become available.Consumer studies conducted by McKinsey and Company in China, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States suggest that consumer optimism will be higher at the beginning and end of a pandemic and will vary from country to country (Seraphin, H., 2018). While the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 persists around the world, its impact is felt differently across countries. As a result, there are significant differences in how consumers respond to a crisis and adapt to the next norm. For example, in the case of China, which was the first to go through all the stages of a pandemic, consumers were found to pay a lot of attention to organic products. Thus, in the future, the tourism industry will be more focused on alternative forms, such as ecotourism, agritourism, rural tourism, etc. These forms of tourism will increasingly co-focus their attention on nature and society.In general, tourism will become more environmentally friendly (World Tourism Organization at the United Nations, 2021). For example, as a result of a significant decrease in demand, airlines began to abandon old and inefficient aircraft. Reduced air travel will reduce CO2 emissions. Undoubtedly, one of the trends in the development of tourism will be the integration of new technologies into the service industry: virtual and augmented reality, the economy of impressions, e-commerce, contactless technologies and other innovations (Tourism Towards 2030, 2021).Summing up, we can conclude that the COVID-19 pandemic is causing significant damage to the tourism industry both around the world and in the Russian Federation. However, given its scale, there is an urgent need not to return to business as usual after the end of the crisis, but to carry out a global transformation of the tourism system. The COVID-19 pandemic should be seen as an opportunity to critically rethink the trajectory of the tourism market.The author believes that the main trends that we saw this year will develop. First, the feeling of uncertainty led to a decrease in booking depth - people began to plan trips at the last moment. Until the situation returns to some more or less familiar norm, people will continue to do so. But as the volume of traffic recovers, buying in advance should again become more profitable, and people will return to this.It is still difficult to predict what will happen with international tourism in the near future - it depends on many factors and decisions of many countries. Of course, as a result, the world will begin to open up again, but not immediately and it is not easy - perhaps new rules and medical documents necessary for visiting countries will appear, and, most likely, people will be wary of the likelihood of getting sick for a long time to come. ... Therefore, the usual crowds in popular tourist places will probably not return soon, and many will wear masks in such places for a long time.The complete recovery of the tourism industry, of course, will take years, but at the same time some segments and directions will recover and grow much faster and can rapidly overtake the pre-crisis indicators in the next year. For example, the same local tourism to unusual places.International flights will be restored for a very long time. IATA predicts that global passenger traffic will return to previous values no earlier than 2024, and they have worsened their original forecast. After the events of September 11, 2001, passenger aviation was restored for about seven years. Author hopes that now the global recovery of the industry will be faster, but still it will probably take years. So now is the time to develop domestic tourism.ConclusionThus, the following conclusions can be drawn.Summarizing the above, it can be noted that even in the context of the global economic crisis and a decrease in purchasing demand for services, tourism occupies the most important positions in the economies of many countries and regions of the world. The development of tourism contributes to the further deepening of the integration process and international specialization. It is necessary to pay serious attention to the tourism industry as a large sector of the country's economy, as an interconnected system that influences both economic and social processes in society. In modern conditions of the global economic crisis, it is becoming increasingly important to develop new methodological approaches to the development and improvement of the regional tourism management system and to increase interest in domestic and inbound tourism.The analysis of the dynamics of the development of the international tourism market demonstrated its connection with modern trends, since the tourism industry is an integral part of the world economy. Special attention was paid to assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the development of international tourism. Coronavirus infection has affected the whole world, affected the economies of all countries, including the tourism industry. Trends were identified related to a decrease in the number of tourist flows, the negative impact of the pandemic on the level of employment and income from tourism activities. Travel restrictions remain in place in many countries, consumer confidence is at an all-time low despite a growing number of territories adopting a variety of measures, including imposed safety and health protocols, targeted marketing and advocacy campaigns, tourism recovery plans, methods to stimulate domestic tourism, etc. Although it is impossible to predict exactly what tourism will be like after the end of the pandemic, there are a number of forecasts reflecting possible scenarios for the development and recovery of the tourism industry, but all forecasts agree on one thing, international tourism will be required from two to four years to return to 2019 levelsList of referencesAssociation of Tour Operators (2021). [Online] Available at: https://www.atorus.ru (accessed 28 March 2021).Birzhakov M.B. (2012).“Introduction to tourism: Edition 9 revised and supplemented”, Gerda Publishing House, 464 p.Cherkashina, I. V, Adamyuk, A. P, Pshenichnykh and Yu. A. 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