1 Britain needs a big trade deal with Europe and wants one with America. It may end 2020 with neither

Even some of the biggest global airlines, such as Germany's Lufthansa (DLAKF), are seeking government bailouts in order to survive.Travel and tourism accounts for some 10% of global GDP and one in 10 jobs, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council, an industry group. As many as a third of these jobs, or more than 100 million positions, and some $2.7 trillion in GDP could be at risk as a result of the current crisis, the council said last month.Countries that rely most heavily on tourist dollars will be hardest hit. A 25% decline in tourism income will knock on average 7% off GDP among "small island developing states," a contraction that could go as deep as 16% in places such as the Maldives and Seychelles, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.The situation is also dire in Europe, which boasts half the world's international tourist arrivals. The European Parliament estimates that the bloc's tourism industry is losing around €1 billion ($1.1 billion) in revenue per month, a devastating blow to the 27 million EU workers whose jobs are connected to the sector.Kickstarting tourism, while crucial for the global economy, will be especially complex. Reopening businesses and restarting factories is proving hard enough, but the return of travel will require an easing of border controls, international cooperation and, most crucially, travelers themselves.Airports and hotels are trying to lure travelers back with health checks and enhanced cleaning protocols, all of which will add layers of cost at a time when the sector's finances are in tatters because of the collapse in travel.The World Travel and Tourism Council is working with governments and travel organizations to agree on standardized health checks and cleaning protocols. It expects to issue guidelines for the hospitality industry this week with guidance for airports to follow.Ryanair (RYAAY), which carries millions of tourists around Europe each year, on Tuesday announced new health measures to be implemented on board aircraft as part of plans to restore 40% of flights starting on July 1. The measures illustrate the daunting task facing airlines as they seek to resume flying.Even if that does happen, international tourist arrivals are predicted to be virtually nonexistent this year.The United Nations World Tourism Organization estimates a decline of as much as 80% from 2019, depending on how long travel restrictions remain in place. That compares with a 0.4% decline during the SARS epidemic in 2003 and a 4% drop in 2009 following the global financial crisis.There are some early signs that domestic travel is gradually picking up again in certain countries, although it's too soon to call a recovery.China began to ease coronavirus lockdown restrictions in March, after the country's near complete shutdown in late January. More than 30% of domestic airline capacity has returned since March 1, according to aviation analytics company, Cirium.However, some tourist attractions in China were forced to shut shortly after reopening due to an influx of visitors. The country is now renewing restrictions in some areas after new cases of the virus were reported in two cities, including the pandemic's epicenter Wuhan.Elsewhere, Airbnb has observed a surge in domestic bookings in Denmark and the Netherlands, CEO Brian Chesky told the Financial Times recently. "People will want options that are closer to home, safer, and more affordable," Chesky said in a letter to staff posted to the company's website.But that doesn't mean a full recovery will be achieved anytime soon, and China's experience could cause other countries to reopen with even greater caution. In the same letter, Chesky announced a 25% cut to the company's workforce and said revenue in 2020 is expected to be less than half what it took in last year.At the top of this list are the United States, Mexico, Brazil, China, Japan, India, the Philippines, Germany and the United Kingdom, where domestic tourism accounts for more than 80% of total travel and tourism spending, according to the World Travel and Tourism Council.Asia Pacific has the largest regional travel market, which bodes well for some islands, such as the Maldives and Fiji, assuming tourists choose destinations that are closer to home. Countries such as Thailand and Cambodia, which both derive more than 20% of their GDP from travel and tourism, could also benefit. Visitors from Asia accounted for nearly 70% of all tourist arrivals in Thailand in 2018, according to Bangkok Bank.Chinese tourists spend most on world travel, accounting for one fifth of international tourism spending in 2018, or $277 billion, according to the World Tourism Organization. Tourists from the United States follow at $144 billion.ConclusionThus, the following conclusions can be drawn.The global automakers who have built factories in Britain fear the year could end without Britain having agreed a new trade deal with the European Union. That would snarl their supply chains, disrupt production and erode profit margins that are already razor thin.Over time, many would seek to shift production out of the United Kingdom. Some could abandon the country entirely.List of referencesGiddens E. 2015. Restless and Powerful Continent. What awaits Europe in the future? (Translated from English). M .: Publishing House "Delo". 240 s.Sokolov M. London voice of the people. Access: https://russian.rt.com/opinion/567086-sokolov-referendum-breksit-dva (date of treatment 07/04/2021).Thatcher M. 2014. The art of government. Strategies for a Changing World (translated from English). M .: AlpinaPublisher. 503 s.Khesin E. 2016. Economic consequences of the UK's exit from the EU. - Referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union: course, results and consequences. Reports of the Institute of Europe RAS. No. 330. Part 1 (edited by EV Ananyeva, editor-in-chief AV Budargin). Moscow: InstituteofEurope RAS. S. 13-14.